hree months since the peak of bitcoin’s meteoric multi-year bull trend, many analysts are predicting a bearish outlook for the BTC markets. Prominent Chinese trader, Zhao Dong, has described bitcoin as exhibiting four-year market cycles that resemble the seasons in a year, forecasting that the “winter” of cryptocurrency will set-in during 2019. Harvard professor, Kenneth Rogoff, recently predicted that bitcoin’s price will be a “tiny fraction” of its current value in “10 years.” Finder.com.au’s most recent survey has seen its end of year BTC price forecast by revised by over 25% – now estimating that bitcoin will be approximately $21,500 USD by January 2019.
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Zhou Dong Predicts Bearish Medium-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
In a recent interview, prominent Chinese OTC trader and founder of Dfund, Zhao Dong, likened the shifting bitcoin market conditions to the seasons in a year – describing the halving of mining rewards as comprising a pivotal event in bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
Zhao Dong works off the assumption that 2013 comprised an earlier “summer” of bitcoin, followed by the fall in 2014, and the winter in 2015. Zhao states that “the halving event occurred in 2016, [which] also has become a turning point of the start of the new bull market. In 2017, it reached all-time highs. If we say 2017 is the summer of bitcoin, the autumn should come this year, and the next year would be the winter.”
Despite his expectations of a coming “winter” for bitcoin, Zhao Dong shared his optimism for bitcoin’s long-term prospects – stating “it is a short-term bear, but long-term bull market.”
Harvard Economist Predicts $100 BTC in 10 Years
Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Kenneth Rogoff, shared his expectation that bitcoin will fall back to just one hundred dollars in a decade’s time during a recent interview with CNBC.
Discussing his outlook for the bitcoin markets, Mr. Rogoff stating that “bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now [in] 10 years,” forecasting “$100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000” in a decade.
Mr. Rogoff claimed that bitcoin offers little utility outside of illicit uses, claiming “if you take away the possibility of money laundering and tax evasion, its actual uses as a transaction vehicle are very small.” As such, Mr. Rogoff anticipates that bitcoin will experience a slow decline as national governments increasingly “crack down on it.”
Finder.com.au Publishes Results of April Cryptocurrency Predictions Survey
The results of Finder.com.au’s April survey of its “cryptocurrency predictions panel” has seen the company reduce its prediction for the price of bitcoin on the 31st of December to $27,898 AUD (approximately $21,484 USD) – down by approximately 26.5% from the panel’s March prediction of $38,000 AUD ($29,187 USD).
The panel predicts that Ethereum will grow by 234% by 2019 to boast a market capitalization of $285.8 billion USD and a price of $2,736. Finder also predicts that Bitcoin Cash will be valued at $1,708.33 and a market cap of $30 billion by the end of the year.
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